Macronix 2Q26 Preview: Did Margins Keep Pace With a Quarter That Nearly Tripled?

Key Takeaways

Company snapshot

Macronix is a Hsinchu-based integrated device manufacturer in non-volatile memory. It designs and fabricates its own NOR flash, SLC and low-density NAND flash, eMMC, and mask ROM, selling into consumer, communications, computing, automotive and industrial markets. It supplies ROM game cartridges for Nintendo and specialty memory for aerospace and satellite applications. In the first quarter of 2026, NOR flash was 58% of revenue, NAND 30%, and ROM 8%. The company is listed in Taipei under ticker 2337.

Expectations snapshot

Macronix does not issue quarterly revenue or margin guidance, so the table sets reported figures and standing company plans against the street's numbers. Second-quarter revenue is already reported from the monthly filings; the remaining rows are what the 30 July release will reveal.

Street figures are Bloomberg consensus refreshed 26 July 2026. Company plans are from the 27 April results call and release.

Recent developments

The first quarter, reported on 27 April, was the company's first profitable quarter after three loss-making years. Revenue of NT$10.47bn rose 71% YoY, gross margin jumped to 40.8% from 24.2% in the fourth quarter, and net income reached NT$1.78bn. NAND revenue grew 382% YoY, which TrendForce (28 April) tied to Samsung's exit from MLC NAND, reporting that Macronix had moved some NAND pricing to monthly adjustment as supply tightened.

The pricing backdrop kept strengthening. TrendForce (16 June) put first-half NOR flash contract price increases at 100-120% and SLC NAND at 130-150%, and said shortages would keep both rising in the second half, with no significant capacity additions announced. Its 3 July update tempered the broader NAND view: third-quarter contract prices are expected up 10-15% QoQ, a slower pace than earlier in the year, as consumer buyers reach the limit of their price tolerance.

Monthly revenue set a record for the third consecutive month in June at NT$6.96bn, up 216% YoY (company announcement, 10 July), after a record May (DigiTimes, 8 June). First-half revenue of NT$29.59bn passed the company's full-year 2025 total, up 129% YoY (DigiTimes, 8 July). In January the company had announced plans to invest NT$22bn this year to expand capacity and ease what it called severe shortages (Taipei Times, 28 January).

The shares did not follow the revenue. After peaking at NT$185.5 on 21 June, Macronix fell 7.3% on 23 June as Taiwan memory names sold off alongside double-digit declines in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, a move Mega International's Alex Huang attributed to profit-taking after the Taiex crossed 48,000 (Focus Taiwan, 23 June). The decline extended in mid-July when TSMC's higher capital spending outlook pushed Taiwan stocks into a technical correction, with memory names leading the losses (Bloomberg, 17 July). The stock now trades near NT$119.5, down 36% from the peak and still up roughly sixfold over twelve months.

How the quarter is tracking

All three months of the second quarter are reported, so the top line is settled: 2Q26 revenue was NT$19.12bn, up 83% QoQ and 181% YoY, a quarterly record.

Source: MOPS monthly filings.

Source: Taiwan MOPS monthly filings, Zero One Investment Research

With no company revenue guide, the tracking bar is the street's full year. First-half revenue covers 36% of the NT$81.5bn FY2026E consensus, which leaves NT$51.9bn for the second half, a monthly average of NT$8.6bn against June's NT$6.96bn. Monthly revenue has risen every month since December, so the required trajectory extends the current one rather than breaking it. Management said in April that its fabs are running full, so the climb from here comes from price and mix.

What the company has planned and where our numbers sit

The standing plans from the April call: capital spending of NT$22bn this year to expand NAND and eMMC capacity, a 12-inch fab running full with a path from about 20,000 toward 25,000 wafers per month, and continued price increases while supply stays short. Management also said most new equipment will only be delivered in 2027, with suppliers' delivery slots crowded by larger expansions elsewhere, and that it is considering used equipment for non-critical steps.

For the full year, the street expects revenue of NT$81.5bn and net profit of NT$29.6bn, with revenue roughly tripling YoY, then NT$157.4bn of revenue in FY2027E. Our model carries FY2026E net profit of NT$31.4bn against the street's NT$29.6bn. The FY2027E consensus implies revenue nearly doubling again on capacity that mostly arrives through 2027; that is the year the NT$22bn of equipment spending has to convert into wafers.

Source: Company disclosures, Bloomberg consensus, Zero One Investment Research

What to expect from the release

We expect a second consecutive record on every profit line. Pricing rose through the quarter, and gross margin should step up well above the first quarter's 40.8%, which captured only the first weeks of the increases. The street's full-year arithmetic sets the bar: NT$47.6bn of gross profit on NT$81.5bn of revenue implies margins around 60% across the remaining three quarters, so a second-quarter margin in the mid-50s or above keeps that path credible. Two forces argue for a more moderate print: consumer buyers' price tolerance is thinning in NAND (TrendForce, 3 July), and automotive NOR demand was already soft in the first quarter.

On the second half, we expect management to repeat its intent to raise prices. The detail to check is whether that covers NAND as well as NOR, and whether monthly repricing extends to more of the NAND book. We do not expect a formal revenue guide; the pricing commentary is the closest thing the release will offer.

What investors should watch

1. Second-quarter gross margin against the first quarter's 40.8%. A print in the mid-50s or above keeps the street's NT$47.6bn full-year gross profit consensus credible; anything near the first-quarter level would put it out of reach.
2. Second-half pricing language. In April management said it would continue to increase prices; watch whether that stance holds after TrendForce's 3 July call that third-quarter NAND contract price gains moderate to 10-15% QoQ.
3. The NAND and eMMC ramp. NAND reached 30% of first-quarter sales, up 382% YoY; watch the second-quarter share, and any date for the in-house automotive eMMC controller, which management put at customer samples around the first quarter of 2027.
4. Capacity and capex specifics. Progress from about 20,000 toward 25,000 wafers per month on the 12-inch fab, whether any 2027 equipment deliveries pull into 2026, and whether the NT$22bn capex plan moves up.
5. ROM and the new console cycle. Macronix supplies ROM for the current Nintendo console, and management has pointed future volume to the next-generation platform; any confirmation of new-console content would firm up the 2027 ROM line.

Valuation

Macronix trades at about 7.5 times forward earnings and 16.5 times forward EV/EBITDA; trailing earnings multiples are not meaningful because the company was loss-making until late 2025. The peer median sits at 7.0 times forward earnings and 12.3 times forward EV/EBITDA, and every memory name in the set trades at compressed forward multiples: Nanya at 6.3 times, Winbond at 7.0 times, Micron at 12.6 times. Multiples this low against earnings this strong mean the market is pricing current earnings as a cycle peak rather than a new base, across the whole group. On that standard Macronix is priced with its peers on forward earnings and richer on forward EV/EBITDA. The comparison to revisit after the release is FY2027E: the market currently values Macronix at about 3.3 times the street's FY2027E consensus net profit, which shows how little of that year's forecast the market credits. The capacity and pricing detail in the release is the first check on whether that skepticism holds.

Source: FMP market data and consensus estimates, Zero One Investment Research. Forward multiples use each company's next unreported fiscal year. Market-cap column omitted pending vendor data verification. Macronix trailing P/E shown as n.m.: the company was loss-making until 4Q25, so trailing earnings are not comparable. P/BV omitted (not a relevant metric for capital-intensive memory manufacturers). † FMP operating-income defect adjudicated 2026-07-07; EBIT-derived trailing multiples treated with caution.