Global Unichip 3Q26 Preview: The Street Expects Fourth-Quarter Revenue to Fall 7% After a Record Third Quarter
The street's FY26E revenue of NT$61.6bn leaves NT$17.5bn for the fourth quarter, 7% below the NT$18.75bn already filed for 3Q26. We expect NT$18-20bn as the North American CPU project ramps, which would put FY26E at NT$62.1-64.1bn, up 82-88%.
September's NT$7.15bn was the first month above NT$7bn, and the quarter more than doubled YoY, up 118%. In July management said only that second-half revenue would exceed the first half; 3Q26 alone is 74% of the NT$25.3bn first half.
Gross margin fell to 21.5% in 2Q26 from 27.2% in 1Q26 as turnkey production, where Global Unichip resells finished chips, reached 83% of revenue. We expect 18.5-20.0% for 3Q26 and EPS of NT$13.8-16.0, against NT$11.61 in 2Q26.
The street expects FY27E revenue up 143% to NT$149.3bn, about US$4.6bn. That rests on the next-generation North American CPU entering volume production around the turn of the year and on new AI accelerator projects, so the release's 2027 commentary matters more to the shares than the third-quarter margin.
The shares closed at NT$7,585 on 23 October, 12% below the 5 October record of NT$8,600 and up 119% since the 2Q26 results day. They trade at 61x the street's FY27E earnings, against 24.7x forward for Alchip, the closest Taiwan peer.
Company snapshot
Global Unichip (3443 TT), known as GUC, designs custom chips (ASICs) for other companies, mostly AI accelerators and server CPUs for cloud providers. It earns design fees and IP royalties (NRE and IP) and, once a chip enters production, buys the wafers and packaging from TSMC, its largest shareholder, and sells the finished chips to the customer (turnkey). In 1H26 turnkey was 84% of revenue and cloud-related customers about 80%. Revenue was NT$34.1bn in 2025.
Expectations snapshot
Global Unichip reports 3Q26 results at the end of October. The company does not give a numeric quarterly guide, so the table carries what the monthly filings already show, management's July commentary, the street's numbers and ours.
| Metric | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Not guided in numbers; filed NT$18.75bn (+35% QoQ, +118% YoY) | Street implied NT$17.5bn; Zero One NT$18-20bn | Guided 2H above 1H (NT$25.3bn); street NT$61.6bn (+80%); Zero One NT$62.1-64.1bn | Not guided; street NT$149.3bn (+143%); Zero One NT$149.3bn |
| Gross margin | Not guided (2Q26: 21.5%); Zero One 18.5-20.0% (NT$3.5-3.8bn) | Not guided | Not guided (1H26: 24.1%) | Not guided |
| Operating expenses | Guided SG&A flat, R&D up slightly in 2H; Zero One NT$1.36-1.42bn | Same 2H guide | Not guided | Not guided |
| Net profit | Not guided (2Q26: NT$1.56bn, EPS NT$11.61); Zero One NT$1.85-2.15bn, EPS NT$13.8-16.0 | Street implied about NT$2.0bn on our 3Q26 midpoint | Street NT$7.2bn (EPS about NT$53.5) | Street NT$16.7bn (EPS about NT$124) |
| Reported to date | All three months filed (NT$18.75bn) | October due around 10 November | Jan-Sep NT$44.1bn (+103% YoY), 72% of the street figure; 1H26 EPS NT$23.89 | n/a |
Recent developments
- Revenue set three monthly records in a row. July revenue rose 158% YoY to NT$5.77bn, August reached NT$5.84bn, and September rose 22% MoM and 98% YoY to NT$7.15bn, the first month above NT$7bn. The company attributed the increases mainly to higher wafer production (turnkey) revenue (MOPS monthly revenue filings; Economic Daily News, 7 October).
- The board approved about NT$65bn of financing for chip purchases. On 19 August the board approved a five-year NT$40bn syndicated bank loan, expandable to NT$50bn, and up to US$800m of five-year zero-coupon overseas convertible bonds, with the bond proceeds earmarked for foreign-currency material purchases (TTV, 19 August; Knews, 20 August). The facilities exceed the NT$37.4bn of total assets at the end of 2Q26.
- Brokers tie the ramp to a cloud provider's in-house CPU. Brokers cited in the local press identify the main 2H26 driver as a North American cloud provider's 3nm server CPU, which UBS expects to ship about 1.3m units in 2026 and 4m in 2027 (FTNN citing Commercial Times, 22 October; Economic Daily News, 7 October). The company does not name customers.
- One broker estimates turnkey at 89% of 3Q26 revenue. A Japanese broker put third-quarter turnkey revenue at about NT$16.7bn, credited extra foundry capacity for the beat, and said the high 3Q26 base will slow fourth-quarter growth because some shipments may have been pulled forward (China Times, 6 October).
- 2027 estimates are spread widely. Nomura forecasts 2027 EPS of NT$195.28, 57% above the NT$124.3 implied by FMP consensus net profit, and lists a possible turnkey role on a next-generation TPU compute die, Tesla's AI5 and AI6.5 chips and a China automotive ASIC among the projects; the press report notes that some, including the TPU work, have no final contract (FTNN citing Commercial Times, 22 October).
Third-quarter revenue is filed at a record NT$18.75bn, and the street expects the fourth quarter 7% lower
All three months of the quarter are filed, so revenue is settled before the release. The quarter's NT$18.75bn is up 35% QoQ and 118% YoY, and January to September revenue of NT$44.1bn already exceeds all of 2025 by 29%. Turnkey shipments drove the increase: on one broker's estimate turnkey revenue rose about NT$5.1bn to NT$16.7bn, more than the whole NT$4.9bn rise in revenue, so design-fee and IP revenue slipped from NT$2.3bn in 2Q26.
| Month | 2025 (NT$m) | 2026 (NT$m) | YoY | MoM 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July | 2,232.8 | 5,769.2 | +158.4% | +17.1% |
| August | 2,767.5 | 5,840.1 | +111.0% | +1.2% |
| September | 3,612.7 | 7,145.2 | +97.8% | +22.3% |
| Third quarter | 8,613.1 | 18,754.5 | +117.7% | +35.0% QoQ |
| January to September | 21,741.3 | 44,098.9 | +102.8% |
- The quarter stepped up each month: July NT$5.77bn, August NT$5.84bn, September NT$7.15bn. September's level, held for a full quarter, would be NT$21.4bn.
- Management said in July that second-half revenue would exceed the NT$25.3bn first half. The third quarter alone covers 74% of that, so any fourth quarter above NT$6.6bn meets it.
- The street's FY26E of NT$61.6bn, up 80%, leaves NT$17.5bn for the fourth quarter: 7% below 3Q26 and 41% above 4Q25. October revenue is due around 10 November.
The fourth-quarter number the street carries assumes revenue steps down from September's run-rate. A fourth quarter held near NT$18.75bn would lift FY26E revenue about 2% above the street; a drop toward NT$17.5bn would support the view that some 3Q26 shipments were pulled forward.
Management guided only that second-half revenue would exceed the first half
Global Unichip does not guide quarterly revenue or margin in numbers. At the 2Q26 conference on 30 July management said it was more optimistic about the second half than the first and that second-half revenue mix would look like the second quarter's, when cloud-related shipments were about 80% of revenue, with automotive replacing cryptocurrency chips (Yahoo News Taiwan, 31 July).
On costs, management expected selling and administrative expenses to stay about flat in the second half and R&D to rise slightly as its new Turing design center comes fully online. It linked the full-year gross margin to the timing of design-fee (NRE) tape-outs, and said the next-generation North American CPU project should enter mass production from late 2026 to early 2027 (conference summaries, 31 July).
The street expects FY26E revenue of NT$61.6bn and net profit of NT$7.2bn, then FY27E revenue of NT$149.3bn and net profit of NT$16.7bn (FMP consensus, 19 analysts for FY26E and 16 for FY27E). Those figures put FY27E EPS at about NT$124, more than double FY26E's NT$53.5.
Our forecast for 4Q26E revenue is NT$18-20bn, between 4% below and 7% above the third quarter, which puts FY26E at NT$62.1-64.1bn, 1-4% above the street's NT$61.6bn. The difference rests on the CPU project, which brokers expect to ship most of its 2026 volume in the second half, offsetting any shipments that moved into September. For FY27E we carry the street's NT$149.3bn. The two FY26E numbers converge if October and November revenue falls back toward NT$5.8bn a month, the July and August level.
What to expect from the release
- Gross margin of 18.5-20.0%, below 2Q26's 21.5%. Turnkey resale of TSMC wafers carries a much lower margin than design fees, and one broker puts turnkey at 89% of 3Q26 revenue against 83% in 2Q26. On the filed revenue, our range is NT$3.5-3.8bn of gross profit, up from NT$3.0bn.
- Operating margin of 10.9-12.7%. We expect operating expenses of NT$1.36-1.42bn, against NT$1.32bn in 2Q26, as R&D rises with the Turing center; that spending grows far slower than revenue, which keeps operating margin near 2Q26's 12.1% despite the lower gross margin.
- Net profit of NT$1.85-2.15bn, for EPS of NT$13.8-16.0. That compares with NT$1.56bn and EPS of NT$11.61 in 2Q26. The street's FY26E net profit of NT$7.2bn, less NT$3.2bn in the first half, needs about NT$2.0bn in the fourth quarter on our 3Q26 midpoint.
- Fourth-quarter commentary pointing to revenue near the third quarter. We expect management to keep its qualitative style and describe the CPU ramp as on schedule, consistent with our NT$18-20bn.
- A larger balance sheet. Inventory was NT$14.5bn and customer prepayments (contract liabilities) NT$13.2bn at the end of 2Q26, up from NT$10.1bn and NT$7.3bn at the end of 2025, and we expect both to rise again with turnkey volume.
What investors should watch: three issues for the fourth quarter and 2027
Third-quarter revenue is filed. Three issues in the release decide the fourth-quarter and 2027 numbers; for each we give our expectation and the specific thing to check.
- Does the fourth quarter hold near NT$18.75bn? The street carries NT$17.5bn; we expect NT$18-20bn. Check management's description of the fourth quarter against the third, whether it confirms the next-generation CPU project is in volume production, and any comment on shipments pulled into September. October revenue, due around 10 November, is the first data point.
- Where does gross margin settle as turnkey dominates? Check 3Q26 gross margin against 21.5% in 2Q26 and 24.1% for 1H26, the split between NRE and IP and turnkey revenue, and whether management still links the full-year margin to NRE tape-out timing. A gross margin below 18.5% would put the street's NT$7.2bn FY26E net profit at risk; operating margin near 12% would mean opex discipline is absorbing the lower gross margin.
- Does the 2027 commentary support revenue up 143%? The street's FY27E NT$149.3bn needs the CPU project at full volume and new accelerator work. Check what management says on 2027 capacity at TSMC (wafers and CoWoS advanced packaging), any new turnkey award, how much of the NT$40bn loan facility had been drawn by the end of the quarter, whether the convertible bond has been issued, and inventory and customer prepayments as signs of committed orders.
Valuation and peer comparables
At NT$7,585 Global Unichip trades at 140x FMP's FY26E EPS consensus. On the street's FY27E net profit of NT$16.7bn, NT$124.3 a share over 134.0m shares, the multiple is 61x. Forward EV/EBITDA is 107x on FY26E (Exhibit 5).
Against peers the shares trade at a large premium. The six-peer median forward P/E of 33.6x sits between Synopsys and Cadence and does not depend on Arm's 95x or Faraday's 55x. Alchip, the closest Taiwan design-service peer, trades at 24.7x its FY26E earnings; even on FY27E, a year further out, Global Unichip's 61x is about 2.5 times that.
The FY27E multiple depends on net profit rising 132% next year. A release that keeps the CPU ramp on schedule and adds 2027 capacity supports that estimate; a fourth quarter that falls toward NT$17.5bn, or gross margin below 18%, would leave the FY27E estimate carrying more of the risk.
| Company | Mkt cap (US$bn) | P/E (TTM) | P/E (Fwd) | EV/Sales (TTM) | EV/Sales (Fwd) | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | EV/EBITDA (Fwd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Listed | |||||||
| Arm Holdings | 224.4 | n.m. | 95.3x | 43.0x | 36.4x | 161.6x | 74.1x |
| Cadence Design Systems | 87.2 | 62.5x | 38.8x | 15.1x | 13.9x | 38.7x | 28.4x |
| Synopsys | 82.4 | 74.7x | 28.4x | 9.5x | 9.2x | 24.0x | 26.9x |
| Taiwan-Listed | |||||||
| Alchip Technologies† | 9.3 | 48.4x | 24.7x | 11.4x | 3.6x | 34.5x | 13.9x |
| Faraday Technology† | 1.5 | 75.6x | 55.0x | 3.4x | 3.2x | 25.2x | 20.2x |
| International | |||||||
| Socionext | 2.0 | n.m. | 23.5x | 1.4x | 1.2x | 10.0x | 8.3x |
| Peer median (all peers) | 68.6x | 33.6x | 10.4x | 6.4x | 29.9x | 23.6x | |
| Global Unichip | 31.2 | n.m. | 140.4x | 21.7x | 16.1x | 151.9x | 107.0x |
Source: FMP market data and consensus estimates, Zero One Investment Research. Prices at the latest Taipei, Tokyo and US closes before publication. Forward multiples use each company's next unreported fiscal year per FMP consensus: December 2026 for Global Unichip, Alchip, Faraday and Cadence, October 2026 for Synopsys, March 2027 for Arm and Socionext. P/E shown as n.m. where net margin is below 5% or the multiple exceeds 150x. Global Unichip market cap is NT$1,016.5bn at NT$7,585 and 134.0m shares, converted at the FMP rate. † FMP operating-income defect adjudicated; EBIT-derived trailing multiples treated with caution. P/B is not shown for this IP-driven group.